Forsberg :: Dissertation Information

Dissertation published as

Ole J. Forsberg, Terrorism and Nationalism: Theory, causes and causers (Saarbrücken, Germany: VDM Verlag, 2007).
[ISBN-13: 978-3-836-41592-7]

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Dissertation Title

The Pressure Model of Terrorism: A Behavioralist Explanation for Ethnonational Terrorism in Western Europe, 1945-2000.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine what factors affected an ethnonational group’s decision to utilize terrorism to obtain their desired outcomes. Current theories have come to an answer, but their theoretical underpinnings have been disparate and weak. Thus, in answering this question, I created a new model of terrorism, which spanned the levels of analysis through use of a weak rational choice model and psychological models.

While the model was not universally supported by the statistical tests, it was able to explain the counter-intuitive findings regarding democracies and to select the appropriate sociological model regarding ethnic concentration and its relationship to ethnic violence.

The model was then applied to two real-life examples, the Ulster Catholics and the Scots, to determine if it could shed light on the differences in outcomes for those not dissimilar groups. The findings revealed that the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement was doomed to failure because the underlying action pressure was too great, while the 1998 Good Friday Accord had a much greater probability of success because the action pressure was significantly lower in the mid-1990s.

Finally, several suggestions are made to reduce the probability of an outbreak of terrorism among a state’s ethnonational minorities.